{"assumptions":[{"id":"k","label":"Weight of the starting guess","source":"Weight of the starting guess, as if it were this many similar cases. Estimated.","unit":"cases","value":4},{"id":"p0.MERCHANDISE_OR_SERVICE_NOT_RECEIVED.no_evidence","label":"Typical seller win rate: item not received, no evidence","source":"Parley's starting table for this reason","unit":"probability","value":0.45},{"id":"p0.MERCHANDISE_OR_SERVICE_NOT_RECEIVED.evidence","label":"Typical seller win rate: item not received, evidence on file","source":"Parley's starting table for this reason","unit":"probability","value":0.6},{"id":"p0.MERCHANDISE_OR_SERVICE_NOT_AS_DESCRIBED.no_evidence","label":"Typical seller win rate: item not as described, no evidence","source":"Parley's starting table for this reason","unit":"probability","value":0.35},{"id":"p0.MERCHANDISE_OR_SERVICE_NOT_AS_DESCRIBED.evidence","label":"Typical seller win rate: item not as described, evidence on file","source":"Parley's starting table for this reason","unit":"probability","value":0.45},{"id":"p0.UNAUTHORISED.no_evidence","label":"Typical seller win rate: unauthorised charge, no evidence","source":"Parley's starting table for this reason","unit":"probability","value":0.25},{"id":"p0.UNAUTHORISED.evidence","label":"Typical seller win rate: unauthorised charge, evidence on file","source":"Parley's starting table for this reason","unit":"probability","value":0.25},{"id":"p0.DUPLICATE_TRANSACTION.no_evidence","label":"Typical seller win rate: duplicate charge, no evidence","source":"Parley's starting table for this reason","unit":"probability","value":0.05},{"id":"p0.DUPLICATE_TRANSACTION.evidence","label":"Typical seller win rate: duplicate charge, evidence on file","source":"Parley's starting table for this reason","unit":"probability","value":0.3},{"id":"p0.CREDIT_NOT_PROCESSED.no_evidence","label":"Typical seller win rate: refund not received, no evidence","source":"Parley's starting table for this reason","unit":"probability","value":0.08},{"id":"p0.CREDIT_NOT_PROCESSED.evidence","label":"Typical seller win rate: refund not received, evidence on file","source":"Parley's starting table for this reason","unit":"probability","value":0.3},{"id":"p0.CANCELED_RECURRING_BILLING.no_evidence","label":"Typical seller win rate: cancelled subscription, no evidence","source":"Parley's starting table for this reason","unit":"probability","value":0.4},{"id":"p0.CANCELED_RECURRING_BILLING.evidence","label":"Typical seller win rate: cancelled subscription, evidence on file","source":"Parley's starting table for this reason","unit":"probability","value":0.4},{"id":"fee_if_lost","label":"Fee if you lose","source":"Extra fee charged when a dispute is lost. Estimated; set per seller.","unit":"cents","value":0},{"id":"handling","label":"Your time per fight","source":"Your time to prepare and send a response. Estimated.","unit":"cents","value":1500},{"id":"accept_m","label":"Offer size half of buyers accept","source":"Share of the amount at which half of buyers accept an offer. Estimated, not PayPal data.","unit":"share of amount","value":0.5},{"id":"accept_s","label":"How quickly acceptance rises","source":"How quickly buyers go from refusing to accepting around that share. Estimated, not PayPal data.","unit":"steepness","value":8},{"id":"offer_step","label":"Offer step","source":"Offers are tried in steps of this size.","unit":"cents","value":50},{"id":"offer_min_gain","label":"Smallest gain that justifies an offer","source":"An offer is only suggested when it beats fighting or accepting by at least this much.","unit":"cents","value":500},{"id":"serial_min_disputes","label":"Disputes before a buyer counts as a repeat disputer","source":"A buyer with at least this many disputes, covering at least half of their orders, gets no partial offer. Estimated.","unit":"disputes","value":7}],"version":"2026-11-12.1"}